In Defense Of Uncertainty

Why taking everything with a grain of salt is often a good idea

According to stock photo websites, we are all uncertain about directions. Photo by Jon Tyson on Unsplash

There’s a big issue that’s been bothering me all pandemic. It’s present in almost every scientific discussion we have, it’s important for every fact or factoid that you hear on TV or see online, and yet we almost never talk about it in a meaningful way. People sometimes allude to the idea, particularly experts in their fields, but all too often it is still drowned out in the noise.

I’m talking about uncertainty, and how bad we are at acknowledging it.

Pictured: A sign. Photo by Kyle Glenn on Unsplash

The problem is that we often treat scientific evidence as a solid, reliable fact. Gravity pulls small objects towards bigger ones, and if you jump up you’ll eventually come down, at least on Earth and barring a low-flying aircraft of some kind. If you don’t enough drink water you’ll get dehydrated — if you stop entirely, you’ll eventually die. These are the kind of foundational truths that we build our understanding of the world on.

And for much of science, this is perfectly reasonable — there are many things that are so well-evidenced that they’d need a staggering mountain of evidence to overturn them…